COVID-19 Counter Measures Should be Age Specific
BY MARTIN KULLDORFF   APRIL 10, 2020   POLICY, PUBLIC HEALTH   7 MINUTE READ
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THiS ARTICLE WAS CENSORED BY BIG TECH AND I AM UPLOADING IT TO MY BLOG TO MUCK "LACK OF SCIENCE ' BY MAINSTEAM MEDIA
It can be also found here at this link

Among COVID-19 exposed individuals, people in their 70s have roughly twice the mortality of those in their 60s, 10 times the mortality of those in their 50s, 40 times that of those in their 40s, 100 times that of those in their 30s, 300 times that of those in their 20s, and a mortality that is more than 3000 times higher than for children. Since COVID-19 operates in a highly age specific manner, mandated counter measures must also be age specific. If not, lives will be unnecessarily lost. 
To determine effective public health counter measures against COVID-19, it is important to know the population characteristics of the epidemic [1]. It has been widely reported that mortality rates among those diagnosed and hospitalized are higher in older age groups [2, 3], but to determine public health action, it is the mortality among those exposed or infected that is of primary importance. Absolute risk estimates are uncertain at this stage of the epidemic, due to asymptomatic infected individuals [4] and limited population based testing [1], but with reasonable assumptions about exposure, it is possible to obtain rough estimates of the relative risks in different age groups, as well as upper bounds for the absolute risks.
We consider two alternative exposure scenarios at the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, before any social distancing was in place. In Scenario A, the likelihood of being exposed was equal in all age groups. In Scenario B, those <70 had twice the exposure compared to ages 70-79, who in turn had twice the exposure of those 80 and older. The truth probably lies somewhere in between these two scenarios. 
Using Wuhan data for the relative risk of a COVID-19 diagnosis after exposure (RRC|E) and national Chinese data for the relative risk of death after a diagnosis (RRD|C) [2], the estimated relative risk of death among those exposed is RR = RRC|E x RRD|C. The Wuhan data better reflect the pre-social distancing phase of the epidemic while the Chinese mortality data increase the sample size of diagnosed individuals, generating more reliable estimates. 
With age 70-79 as baseline, relative mortality risks are shown in Table 1. For COVID-19 exposed individuals, people in their 70s have roughly twice the mortality of those in their 60s, 10 times the mortality of those in their 50s, 40 times that of those in their 40s, 100 times that of those in their 30s, 300 times that of those in their 20s, and a mortality that is more than 3000 times higher than for children. Under Scenario B, with higher exposure among the young, the age differences are even larger.
In the United States, social distancing was in place early on, and since it is easier for retired people to stay home, it is likely that there was much less exposure among older people. Despite this, there is a higher proportion of diagnosed cases among the older population [5]. This means that the U.S. numbers are consistent with those from China.  
Table 1: Relative risks (RR) for COVID-19 mortality by age group. In scenario A, pre-social distancing probability of exposure is assumed to be equal across all ages. In scenario B, it is assumed to be twice as high for those <70 and half as much for those >80, compared to age 70-79. 
Since 1/RR is approximately 100 for age 30-39, exposure of only 1,000 people in their 70s would lead to the same number of deaths as the exposure of 100,000 persons in their 30s. In other words, in order to avoid the same fixed number of deaths, one must prevent COVID-19 exposure to 1,000 people in their 70s, or 10,000 people in their 50s, or 40,000 in their 40s, or 100,000 in their 30s, or 300,000 in their 20s, or 3.5 million children. Preventing exposure of 3.5 million children or 100,000 people in their 30s is practically, logistically, and financially more challenging than preventing exposure of 1,000 people aged 70-79. 
Government officials would be wise to take advantage of these widely different mortality rates by age in devising their COVID-19 counter measures, while still maintaining essential societal services. Whether mandated counter measures are intensified, recalibrated, or gradually relaxed sometime in the future, age specific measures should be part of the strategy. If not, there will be unnecessary mortality, burden on hospitals and economic disruption. Counter measures directed specifically at older people will not only protect them, it will also free up health care resources for those younger people that do need hospital care. 
To date, most government mandated mitigation measures have either been age neutral, such as restaurant closures, or targeted at young and middle-aged people, such as school and office closures. A more appropriate age targeted approach is needed. Just as some pubs ban customers under the age of 21, government officials could set temporary upper age limits of say 50, 60, or 65 for visiting or working at restaurants, stores, offices, airports, and other public places. So, for example, while all 60-plus-year-old supermarket cashiers, gas station attendants, police officers, postal workers, garbage collectors and bus drivers should stay home, their younger colleagues should keep working, taking extra shifts as needed. 
Counter measures must consider not only relative risks but also absolute risks. Among diagnosed cases age 70-79, the mortality rate in China was 1 in 25. [2] Their absolute mortality risk when simply exposed is then less than that, although we do not know how much less. Transformed to other age groups, using the data from Table 1, the absolute risk-of-death point estimates among those exposed is less than 1 in 25×3560=89,000 for children, less than 1 in 7,500 for age 20-29, less than 1 in 2,500 for age 30-39, less than 1 in 1,000 for age 40-49, less than 1 in 230 for age 50-59, less than 1 in 58 for age 60-69, less than 1 in 25 for age 70-79 and less than 1 in 17 for those in the 80+ age group. These numbers for exposed individuals are more favorable but similar to recent mortality estimates for infected individuals [3]. To put these upper bounds in context, the upper bounds for children and young adults are lower than the U.S. infant mortality rate of 1 in 170 or the annual child mortality rate of around 1 in 6,000 [6]. For the older age groups, on the other hand, the upper bounds on the mortality rates are staggeringly high.
Infectious disease outbreaks have occurred throughout history and will continue to do so, aided by urbanization and long-distance travel. COVID-19’s ability to kill and its rapid spread make it a formidable enemy that is impossible to stop until herd immunity is reached. Just as in war, we must exploit the characteristics of the enemy in order to defeat it with the minimum number of casualties. Since COVID-19 operates in a highly age specific manner, mandated counter measures must also be age specific. If not, lives will be unnecessarily lost.
Martin Kulldorff, Biostatistician, Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston
References 
[1] M. Lipsitch, D. L. Swerdlow och L. Finelli, ”Defining the Epidemiology of Covid-19 — Studies Needed,” New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 382, pp. 1194-1196, 2020. 
[2] J. T. Wu, K. Leung, M. Bushman, N. Kishore, R. Niehus, P. M. d. Salazar, B. J. Cowling, M. Lipsitch och G. M. Leung, ”Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China,” Nature Medicine, pp. 1-5, 2020. 
[3] R. Verity, L. C. Okell, I. Dorigatti, P. Winskill, C. Whittaker, N. Imai, G. Cuomo-Dannenburg och etal, ”Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis,” The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2020. 
[4] R. Li, S. Pei, B. Chen, Y. Song, T. Zhang, W. Yang och J. Shaman, ”Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2),” Science, nr March 16, 2020. 
[5] CDC COVID-19 Response Team, ”Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, vol. 69, nr 12, pp. 343-346, 2020. 
[6] S. L. Murphy, J. Xu, K. D. Kochanek och E. Arias, ”Mortality in the United States, 2017,” National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD, USA., 2018.
Originally published on LinkedIn
Author

• Martin KulldorffMartin Kulldorff, Senior Scientific Director of Brownstone Institute, is an epidemiologist and biostatistician specializing in infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety. He is the developer of Free SaTScan, TreeScan, and RSequential software. Most recently, he was professor at the Harvard Medical School for ten years. Co-Author of the Great Barrington Declaration. kulldorff@brownstone.org

TEST

Anno Domini 2020?
 
How could it be in this day and age we date things, by of all things, the year of Our Lord?

BC, Before Christ, and AD, Anno Domini, have now morphed into BCE Before the Common Era, and CEi n the Common Era, in some academic circles,
but the numbers remain the same. We date things from the birth of Jesus Christ of Nazareth in Judea a minor Roman Province 2020 years ago. At the very
least he is an actual historical person born two thousand twenty years ago, give or take four or five years! May God help us! OMG its Christmas time!
 
It seems that in spite of the workings of universal materialism, secular humanism, and the rise of “Nones” who seem to now outnumber nuns, Christmas is now upon us once again and once again New Year’s will be a year of Our Lord! Santa Claus, a Roman Catholic bishop, fattened up and clothed in red by Coca Cola when a skinny green clad representation wouldn’t do to sell Coke, now rides in parades and merchandises mall atriums everywhere. This whole Christ thing just can’t be killed with a stick!

So we send season’s greetings cards to arrive before Christmas. The United State Postal Service sells a bundle of very specific religious themed legal tender postage stamps inspired by the keep Christ in Christmas movement. How separate is that? The state sells religious art! Come on. Where is the ACLU when you need them? 
Retail sales both in brick and mortar and in cyberspace peak at Christmas time. Black Friday and cyber Monday begets a golden Christmas spread sheet. In thename of Jesus Christ what is going on here? 
 
Our much maligned, slave owning, tobacco growing, hard drinking, misogynist founding fathers were all Christians. They founded a Christian country modeled on Christian England less a king not to mention less a Pope! It stuck, and we are stuck with it to this day. We each have pockets full of religious  medallions engraved with our deceleration that; “In God we trust.” What’s more we all work for the almighty dollar and its larger denominations similarly inscribed.
Christmas trees are everywhere. We have a national one, powered no doubt by tax dollars. Christmas lights have become a seasonal competitive participatory sport. Christmas and by extension Christ and his birthday celebration is symbolized magnificently by a telegenic fleet of high speed red Mercedes Benz transports whose lead driver is the afore mentioned Coca Cola aggrandized Roman Catholic Bishop, jolly old Saint Nick himself. Was he canonized?
Perhaps the forces of darkness have not won after all. Pre-Christmas, the big day was December 22nd. Sol invictus, the unconquered sun, returned in victory after much praying and alms giving to pagan priests as the days began getting longer once again, not a sure thing they preached, which in an agricultural economy was no small annual event.
 
Black Fridays followed by the sun gods victory was hard to beat. Well how about the Incarnation? Jesus stuck that landing on our planet and it has stuck with us for over 2000 years. Believe it or not tis the season. Have a happy, healthy, holy and merry Christmas form all of “us” to all of you.
 
The Christians.  
I thought this would be my Christmas Card to the world now that we no longer have a Christmas card list. The Wall Street Journal said they would pass!
 
Next the state of New Hampshire would be nice. They were nice, and the Union Leader will run it on Tuesday as an editorial. Enjoy your copy of my Christmas card.
 
Regards,
Jack Falvey
World Headquarters 603 432 5715
www.MakingTheNumbers.com
22 Cortland Street
Londonderry, New Hampshire 03053
USA
 

Generations have always been stereotyped. The greatest generation was viewed famously by Brits as: “Over paid, over sexed and over here!” The Age of Aquarius gave us color, the acceptance of a drug culture and now geriatric man buns! Greed gave us billionaires now turned politicians.
Born in the hands of Steve Jobs on June 29th 2007 at 3:00 p.m. the “Me Myself and iGeneration” worships its pocket tin gods 80 plus times a day as they pray to their ubiquitous iPhones. It is as we now know a transmittable affliction.
  We all have sipped their smart phone Kool Aide.
I’ve faced iGens and their pocket gods in class for several years. The term is somewhat elastic. Here is what I’ve discovered; they actually thrive on hard work. Long hours will come. They need not study globalization because they have been there. Internships in Singapore are not uncommon. They believe telephones are intrusive! “Hold my calls Miss Jones!” has now reached universality. They may be right! They make text appointments to call someone!
They multitask and will eventually learn to break that habit. They color between the lines obsessively as they have lived a rule based structured existence. They manage time perfectly. They have to learn that there are no more due dates. Everything is now!
Instead of five year career plans they have life plans. Life will fix that easily. They are masters of everyday technology and are early adopters, but fail to use it to learn or check facts.
Every previous generation has out lived its predecessors. That will not change. Why not make life easier all the way around and seek common ground. Meet them midway. There is no need to drag everyone to Friday afternoon beer blasts. Sending juniors to trade shows or letting them travel as part of a management team builds character. Try not to assign them to answer their dreaded phones. That should be a mid-level task anyway, as in-depth organizational knowledge is required. Dialing for dollars in sales could be a later career assignment after meeting prospects face to face for a year or two! The buddy system has worked for the Boy Scouts in water safety for years. One to one is better than a group. Medical schools have always taught surgery that way; see one, do one, teach one! We learn best from slightly senior peers rather than senior citizens. Non-commissioned officers have successfully run the United States Marine Corp and have adjusted to this generation without compromising their mission or traditions. Youth is malleable. They are just as success oriented and flexible as those before them. Forget the cultural quirks and just substitute common sense norms. No screens or iWatchs in class will easily transition to no screens in meetings. Eye contact can be learned as a result. Ford instituted that rule for executive committee meetings. Don’t site sources, but be sure you have them if challenged. American Icon, Hoffman.
My students can write and therefore can think. They accept grading. Grading is a grind, but that’s what big management bucks are paid for. Send things back for re-dos. That will be appreciated rather than resented. Encourage questions by asking questions. Listening is an underdeveloped management talent.
The old methods, slightly modified work well in today’s immerging culture. You don’t have to text your annual report. It is already on line. You may be further than half way home already. Do not roll your eyes! Treat the newcomers as you would have liked to have been treated. You were once a naive twenty something. Think back, but don’t refer back. Strike; “back in the day” from your vocabulary! They now have news feeds, we had headlines. We read books they have blogs. We listened to radio, they have podcasts. Music has always been a generational culture challenge. It always will be.
We need talent to grow organizations. They have talent and want to grow in organizations. They have to learn how to shake hands! Marines all have to learn how to salute. All this has always worked itself out. You can be a little more understanding than a drill instructor. How much is a judgement call. In all cases you have good material to work with. Work on it. Stereotypes are just that.
I have yet to meet one.
Jack Falvey is an adjunct teacher at Boston College 
 

Jack Falvey
World Headquarters 603 432 5715
www.MakingTheNumbers.com
22 Cortland Street
Londonderry, New Hampshire 03053
USA

 
The 23rd Annual Components for Military and Space Electronics is the premier event focused on the design, reliability, and application of electronic components for use in avionics aerospace, military & commercial space systems.
The conference provides access to more than 30 technical presentations by industry leaders, focused on advanced packaging of ICs, passive components, and a number of other topics critical to components used in high reliability military and aerospace systems. Also included are over 30 exhibitors of passives, semiconductor and equipment manufacturers.
Click here to preview the Advance Program.
The cutting-edge tutorials, along with two days of exhibition and technical presentations, educate, inform, and provide solutions for current challenges within the military and space electronics business.
Keynote speakers for the event have been announced:
Dennis Zogbi, Paumanok Publications, Inc.
Called a “National Treasure” by the former undersecretary of defense, Zogbi is the founder and lead researcher at Paumanok Publications and the author of more than 300 studies on the global market for passive electronic components and related raw materials. Zogbi advises many of the largest hedge funds in the world in the area of mass produced and specialty electronic components and speaks on Wall Street on a monthly basis. Zogbi will be speaking on MLCC Shortages: FY 2019 Tier-To-Tier replacement Strategies and Alternative Reference Design Solutions.
Dr. Jonathan Ahlbin, Missile Defense Agency
Dr. Jonathan Ahlbin is the Division Chief for Parts, Materials, and Processes Engineering (Acting) and the Branch Lead for EEE Parts Engineering with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency. In these roles, he is responsible for implementing and managing the team that oversees all MDA BMDS parts, materials, and process requirements and policies. Dr. Ahlbin will be speaking about Flexibility and Innovation in Military Systems.
Among the tutorial highlights is a day-long session on the Reliability of passive components (capacitors, resistors, and inductors) taught by five of the leading experts in the field: Dr. Yuri Freeman, Kemet; John Marshall, AVX; Chris Reynolds, AVX; Scott Harris, Vanguard Electronics; and Bryan Yarborough, Vishay Dale Electronics.
For a complete rundown of all of this year’s sessions at CMSE, click here.

Tom Terlizzi's spotlight  interview as "Featured Engineer" will be online on August 7-14. Click here for full details.  

EEWeb's Co-founders Joe Wolin and Cody Miller formed Aspen Labs, LLC in 2007 with the goal of creating a business media company that focuses on the needs of engineers. In 2012 Aspen partnered with Hearst Electronics Group, a division of the Hearst Corporation, to expand their services to a global audience.

Interview with Tom Terlizzi
Posted Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Engr. Tom TerlizziIndependent Business and Technology Consultant
How did you get interested into Electronics Engineering and when did you start?
When I was a kid for a Christmas present, I received a REMCO crystal radio set, as a “tween” fixing “Hi-Fi” stereo equipment, and reading books on electronics is what hooked me on electronics.
How does it feel to be an inspiration to your huge network in the field of Engineering on LinkedIn?
I am glad people can learn from my mistakes and successes as well as my view to treat everyone fairly and give help and support to your peers, staff and suppliers.
What do you think is the most important lesson you can share to other Engineers?
I would like to say to them, “If you can learn something new every day and not forget what you learned yesterday you’re moving ahead”
Do you support innovative ideas?
Yes, that’s how I always got in trouble in corporate America.
How would you go about promoting it? In most corporations, new ideas and innovate technology are not always embraced; you have to be a champion to get management to embrace them. It takes persistence but eventually management will see the attributes of innovate ideas and new technology and come around to your viewpoint.
Do you participate in professional organizations?
Yes IMAPS and the IEEE-LONG ISLAND SECTION
Can you tell us about it?
IMAPS (INTERNATINAL MICROELECTRONICS AND PACKAGING SOCIETY) is more involved in the assembly and building of Hybrid and PCB electronic circuits and I also have been involved as the local metropolitan chapter as its president and giving presentations, tutorials, and seminars at the International meetings. As a life member of the IEEE I attend local chapter meetings and the yearly microwave meeting (MT-IMS). I find networking at these meeting and meeting fellow engineers on a one on one basis is interesting and technically productive. We all have the same challenges and it’s interesting to see how we all overcome those challenges.
Can you tell us about Agile Microwave Technology Inc.?
Agile Microwave is a company started in 2011 by Jay Chudasama and Ants Rimm two engineers that worked for me in my RF and Microwave group at Aeroflex. The company manufactures, in a fabless environment, RF and Microwave amplifiers and multifunction modules that work up to about 40 Ghz. As a startup fabless company Agile Microwave is developing RF & Microwave Amplifiers, Mixers, RF & Microwave modules, Rack Mount Power Amplifiers, RF Sub-system and custom hybrids and MCMs. Their website is http://agilemwt.com and you can see the almost 100 new products we have developed over the last few years.
Can you tell us about your work as the company's Senior V.P. Business Development and ISO9001:2008 Coordinator?
At Agile Microwave Technology, I developed their ISO9001:2008 procedures and passed ISO certification in Jan. 2016. I design test & production procedures for manufacturing GaAs and GaN RF and multi-function modules. I provide RF Engineering support, proposal generation, developing out-sourced ‘chip and wire” and SMT contract manufacturers (CEM) suppliers and supply chain, Project/Program Management, and business development process. I am also setting up a U.S. and International sales rep. network, generating marketing literature, product roadmaps, and trade shows support. I am also interfacing with GaAs & GaN MMIC foundries for standard and custom IC's and discrete semiconductors; I also have developed partnerships for RF design and product distribution.
How did you start GM Systems for Electronic & Microelectronic Management & Technology Consultancy?
After Aeroflex was acquired by private equity company there was a restructuring and I took a generous severance deal. This gave me some time to start a consulting company, as I was tired of working for “Corporate America”. Consulting, while very challenging, gives me the freedom of working on things I like to do, work with start up companies, new challenging applications and not be shackled by corporate bureaucratic procedures and processes.
What are your hobbies outside of work?
While I like to tinker with electronics, I would say my real hobby is my interest in archaeology and anthropology. Three of my most recent favorites were the legendary treasures of King Tut with over 130 artifacts, ”POMPEII THE EXHIBIT: LIFE AND DEATH IN THE SHADOW OF VESUVIUS” in NYC with over 250 artifacts and the Dinosaur Exhibit at the American Museum of Natural History.
What direction do you see the Electronics Industry heading in the next few years?
I think you can sum up the direction of the electronics industry in the development of new materials, technology and applications driven by smart phones, internet of things, artificial intelligence and advanced software, high end semiconductor devices, and the expansion of the internet worldwide.
Is there anything you’d like to say to young engineers, especially those who are among your network connections and those who get inspired by you to encourage them to pursue electronics?
This is a field, which combines many different aspects of engineering such as device physics, materials engineering, electronic packaging, reliability, circuit design, software and hardware design as well as the practical aspects of a business in “making a profit”. You are able to find many areas to specialize in and have an interesting and lucrative career.
Based on one of your published article, where is analog integration going nowadays?
As I mentioned in my article, Analog circuit designers are still waiting for Field Programmable Analog Arrays (FPAAs) as the "Holy Grail" to have a quick path to new semi-custom monolithic designs. In the custom and standard product world there are many devices with mixed signal capabilities coming out. I think that the Internet of Things (IoT) and a new term I just heard the “Industrial Internet of things “ will drive more analog integration. Moore’s law in the digital world is slowing down a bit but the Analog world will continue to see more integration.

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TECH3EDGE AS ONE OF THE "COOL AND INTERESTING WEBSITES ON ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY IN THE U.S."
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  Just in time for the Super Bowl and like the “Stub Hub” commercial below, in Figure 1 (VIDEO), above “You can’t have your Fan-out in here”. So what’s all this hype on Fan-out Wafer Level Packaging (FO-WLP)?
“Let your Fan out:Boo-Yah1"

FAN IN WLP
First, let us define Fan-In WLP. 
Fan In WLP means the flip chip interconnects are within the outline of the die as shown in Figure 2. Typically, integrated circuit die have peripheral I/O bonding pads, which are routed to a “X-Y” grid in rows and columns as shown in Figure 2  above. ​This is accomplished by adding another thin film conductor layer over a polyimide passivation called a redistribution layer (RDL). 

“Fan-In WLP"